El Niño

IN: the ENSO/El Nino cascade — Pacific sea-surface temperatures and forecasts, the weather it drives (drought, floods, monsoon disruption), the effect on crop yields (corn, wheat, soy, coffee, cocoa, palm oil) and fisheries, the downstream move in food and commodity prices and energy demand, and the institutions that forecast it. OUT: unrelated long-run climate-change policy, single-name equity trading calls, and general weather news with no ENSO linkage.

This causal map links 16 factors across 15 relationships. The strongest:

• El Nino Onset triggers El Nino Forecast. Confidence: 64%.
• Drought increases El Salvador Crop Failure. Confidence: 55%.
• El Salvador Crop Failure increases El Salvador Food Insecurity. Confidence: 54%.
• El Nino Onset triggers Drought. Confidence: 50%.
• Pacific Sst enables El Nino Onset. Confidence: 46%.
• El Salvador Crop Failure increases Rural Household Asset Depletion. Confidence: 43%.
• El Nino Onset increases Monsoon Disruption. Confidence: 41%.
• El Nino Onset increases Food Prices. Confidence: 37%.
• El Nino Onset decreases Fish Catch. Confidence: 34%.
• Drought decreases Palm Oil Production. Confidence: 32%.
• Drought decreases Crop Yields. Confidence: 23%.
• Drought decreases Cocoa Production. Confidence: 23%.