Causal claim

El Nino Onset El Nino Forecast

El Nino Onset triggers El Nino Forecast.

The two move together: more cause, more effect. The map scores it at 64% confidence, weighed from 5 articles.

How it works

Rising Pacific SSTs push forecasters to raise the probability and expected strength of the developing El Nino.

The evidence

Where it sits

What it drives

Nothing downstream on the map yet.

See it on the live map →