Hormuz and the cost of moving goods

How the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz ripple through crude oil prices, tanker shipping and freight costs, and on to US fuel prices and the push to electrify.

This causal map links 107 factors across 80 relationships. The strongest:

• Us Diesel Prices increases Goods Transportation Costs. Confidence: 36%.
• Us Israel War On Iran decreases Strait Of Hormuz Energy Flows. Confidence: 36%.
• Global Oil Prices increases Us Diesel Prices. Confidence: 36%.
• Energy Supply Disruptions increases Us Diesel Prices. Confidence: 36%.
• Strait Of Hormuz Energy Flows increases Global Oil Prices. Confidence: 36%.
• Us Diesel Prices increases Us Inflation. Confidence: 36%.
• Strait Of Hormuz Energy Flows increases Maritime Transport Costs. Confidence: 35%.
• Strait Of Hormuz Energy Flows triggers Lng Market Disruptions. Confidence: 35%.
• Us Israel War On Iran decreases Strait Of Hormuz Transit. Confidence: 32%.
• Ukraine Bombing Of Russian Refineries decreases Russian Oil Refinery Output. Confidence: 32%.
• Houthi Attacks On Red Sea Shipping decreases Red Sea Shipping Supply Routes. Confidence: 32%.
• Fuel Oil Shortage increases Global Freight Costs. Confidence: 31%.
• Iran Attacks On Gulf Oil Facilities decreases Gulf Oil Supply. Confidence: 31%.
• Crude Oil Supply Shortage decreases Fuel Oil Availability. Confidence: 31%.
• Global Freight Costs increases Consumer And Manufacturer Costs. Confidence: 31%.
• Refiner Preference For Profitable Fuels decreases Fuel Oil Availability. Confidence: 31%.
• Energy Route Reliability Risk increases Strategic Value Of Alternative Supply Sources. Confidence: 30%.
• Iran Us Escalation triggers Energy Market Shock. Confidence: 30%.
• Energy Route Reliability Risk increases Non Gulf Producer Leverage. Confidence: 30%.
• Hormuz Disruption enables Energy Procurement Diversification. Confidence: 29%.
• Strait Of Hormuz Closure decreases Global Oil Supply. Confidence: 24%.
• Saudi Emirati Pipeline Networks decreases Global Oil Supply Disruption. Confidence: 17%.
• Expectations Of Swift Conflict End decreases Energy Price Response. Confidence: 16%.
• Stronger Pre Crisis Market Fundamentals decreases Energy Price Response. Confidence: 16%.
• Asian Demand Flexibility decreases Energy Price Response. Confidence: 16%.
• Energy Supply Disruption Size correlates with Energy Price Response. Confidence: 15%.